Population Estimation Survey Report Shows 12 Million People in Somalia

Today the ministry of planning together with the United Nation’s population agency has launched a report about the estimation of population of Somalia; the report shows that there are more than 12 million residents in Somalia.

The multi funded 6.9 million USD dollars survey project estimates Somalia population to be around 12 million individuals of which 74% is under 30 years and categorizes 10% percent as displaced people. The survey covered all the 18th geographical regions of the country and includes population figures for Somalis living far and wide urban, rural, displaced and the nomadic communities.

The survey was designed to provide understanding on the issues of demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, mobility and migration patterns and most importantly the number of population in the country to manage emergencies, elections, resource sharing and other endeavors.

But perhaps one question needs answer is this survey findings reliable? Before answering this question the 1975 census-the first to be carried out in the country results was not published because of a reported flaw and 1980-81 was not processed. Another census was carried out in 1985-86, and once again the census got bogged down in doubts about its accuracy, and was not published again. With of all these resource and expertise involved in the estimation survey project logic dictates not to show any sign of skepticism but rather to treat as prime source of reliable and valid information. And without doubt tireless efforts and resource were allocated for the project however the technical part of the project has serious imperfections.

The procedures were not observed in field, especially the most important –the numeration face which disqualifies this estimation survey to be reliable. In the course of the survey, numerators were working under extreme fear in capital and after at least one numerator was shot dead many field irregularities were reported.

One indicator is that this survey found residents of Banadir Region to be around 1,650,227 by a wide margin of -400,000 to the previous estimation of Mogadishu residents to be (2, 000, 0000-2, 300,000 ).

It’s worth to note that the report was compiled a year ago and was shelved by the government of former prime minister Abdiwali Sheikh after objections from some the regional states, it’s not clear if the concerns of the regional states are addressed.

One starling finding in the report is the number of the IDPs in the country which shows %9 to %11 of the total population, according to some analysis’s, this may translate to sinister agendas by aid organizations and NGO’s who would like to use the report as a tool to raise funds from the donors.

As per the concerns of the regional states, like Puntland , they raise serious concerns about the real motives of unsubstantiated numbers of people in certain provinces, they suspect the data may be used to gain political goals come 2016. It’s all likelihood that the estimation of the population might be used to allocate seats in the parliament.

The report would come handy for the federal government when it comes to budgetary issues, sharing of natural resources, and of course the allocation of international aid and developmental projects among the regional states, and this is clear from the fact that the Aid Coordination Unit comes under the ministry of planning which partly produced the report. The States are worried to this effect.

See below the estimated population per region

Banadir                                                           1650227
Middle Shabelle                                              516036
Hiran                                                               520685
Galgadud                                                        569434
Lower Shabelle                                               1202219
Bay                                                                 792182
Bakol                                                               367226
Gedo                                                                508405
Middle Shabelle                                             362921
Lowet Jubba                                                    489307
Mudug                                                            717863
Sool                                                                  327428
Sanaag                                                               544123
Bari                                                                   719512
Nugaal                                                               392698
Togdheer                                                           721363
Awdal                                                                673263
Waqooyigalbeed                                              1242003

Total                                                  12,316 895

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